UNDER THE MICROSCOPE: Life Detective examines Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine using the typical sarcastic analogies, this time an aging rocker seeking to get the band together one last time as he heads into the twilight of life . . . or perhaps just an aging, desperate man.
Writing about the Russian invasion of Ukraine has become unavoidable. Our interconnected world, where everything has become either BIG or just plain irrelevant, cannot turn away. This is true not merely because the media can’t stop talking about it. It is also true because the story has the potential to impact the world order and individual lives thousands of miles away.
Why exactly is Putin invading Ukraine?
The conventional wisdom seems to be that Putin is an evil autocrat who wishes to bring the Soviet Union back together again. In his own sick version of MRGA (“Make Russia Great Again”), he is seeking to be “Back in the USSR”, getting all the old band members (i.e., former Soviet republics) together again. This is not Lennon and McCartney singing ballads, this is more like Lenin and Hitler unifying the Soviet people as if it were the new Aryan master race. Putin might think he needs to pursue the biggest prize in the USSR reunion tour, the most populous of the remaining former Soviet republics, Ukraine. Like the rumor that the Beatles got rid of their first drummer Pete Best because he was good-looking, Putin is attempting to rid himself of the younger and more likeable Volodymyr Zelensky in the process. He can then insert a less young and seemingly less popular guy like Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko. This would clearly make Putin the leader of an even larger Soviet Union – he’d be a rock czar again!
Why now?
Well, to be frank, Putin is getting old. There have been rumors that he had a bout with prostate cancer and that he may have Parkinson’s. We know he is paranoid about COVID, isolating himself during the pandemic and holding meetings at such a ridiculous social distance that he might still need to use a Zoom call in the same room. Even without medical problems, he is 68 years-old and his stage act isn’t as lively and he may be losing his virility. Heck, maybe he is even heading to sterility – maybe, if his prostate problems are true, “little Vlady”, his “pocket-rocket Sputnik missile”, can’t achieve liftoff anymore. In my recent experience in Florida, old men don’t go quietly into retirement like they used to. They fight aging and seem to get more aggressive, maybe from too much of the little blue pill. That’s a scary thought with Putin, an old guy in control of the world’s second largest nuclear arsenal!
Aside from possible health and old man issues, Putin has seen older rockers, like Meatloaf, pass recently. His aging political contemporaries like Merkel and Trump have seemingly become warm-up bands while younger leaders like Macron, Trudeau, and Zelensky seize lead singer and top billing status. His biological clock is ticking – he must seize upon his fleeting fame and follow the cues of leading, aging bands making 2022 reunion tours. “Minute by Minute” Putin holds on while the Doobie Brothers start a tour. While Genesis sings, Putin seized a “Home by the Sea” (the Black Sea, that is) in the Crimea in 2014 and now seeks a “Second Home by the Sea” in 2022. Perhaps like Blondie he realizes that, with global warming, his seaside homes are at risk as “The Tide is High”. But “One Way or Another” Putin believes what ABBA tells him, “The Winner Takes it All”. Ultimately, while an aging Putin may believe he can get the entire USSR band back together, I think Genesis has it right: he is actually “Throwing it All Away”.
Putin unifies the West
I have to give Putin and his autocratic style credit. He has done what no democratically elected leader could do: unify the Western world. There appears to be great agreement in the rest of Europe and the Americas that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was wrong. Large protests to the invasion have occurred in many Western countries. Only 6 percent of Americans call Russia’s invasion justified. Moreover, each political grouping in America (Democrats, Republicans and Independents) are all well over 70% in calling Putin’s invasion unjustified. While Russian social media disinformation bots may foment social media discord among Americans, Putin’s actions seem to run contra. His approach with Ukrainians suggest he believes “You Belong to Me” in his quest to reconstitute the USSR, but the reality may be his views are “What a Fool Believes” as he solidifies global opposition.
What will happen in Ukraine?
As much as I am inspired by the resistance and bravery of the Ukrainian people, it appears Putin will keep throwing more at them until they capitulate. As my Italian Grandfather used to say about fighters from less militarily advanced countries: “They fight with sticks . . . they lose.” Russia will likely seize physical control of Ukraine, but they may be setting themselves for a long-term quagmire that occupying forces face when the “hearts and minds” of the population are against them. Additionally, the world is isolating Russia from the rest of civilized society. Already, access to banking and financial markets has been restricted, Russian sports teams have been excluded from various events, and Russian products have been boycotted.
The next big questions are whether the war will be broadened beyond Ukraine or if Putin will resort to using nuclear arms. For now, I think the answer is “no” to both. While strongly opposed to the invasion, Western countries do not seem willing to enter a ground war with Russia. The Russian people (and of course the Ukrainians) will be the ones who suffer from this invasion. It will be up to them to rid themselves and the world of their 1970’s USSR ways, ditching 8-tracks, LPs and cassettes in favor of new leadership. Although Putin may be suffering from old man problems and facing his own personal physical decline, I don’t think he will resort to nukes to make his USSR reunion tour a success. Putin has a 30-something year old daughter who was rumored to be in the mix as a possible successor meaning he has a legacy that might well keep him from launching nuclear missiles. And while the USSR and aging rockers like The Police might not get back together in 2022, let’s hope that Putin and Sting continue solo careers sharing a common sentiment: that the “Russians” love their children, too.